Steel approach, the market wait-and-see sentiment, silicon to maintain shock operation, silicon manganese main contract closed at 6748 yuan, an increase of 0.81%, the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.57% to 7046 yuan.
On the demand side, the blast furnace of steel mills is temporarily stable, and there is support for just, but some steel mills have faced cash flow losses, steel mill replenishment power attenuation, and the demand side of double silicon is still expected to face a fall. At present, the steel recruitment in November has not been large-scale, the market worries are rising, the traders' enthusiasm to buy goods is weak, and the overall trading sentiment is biased. In addition, entering the winter heating period, some of the main steel producing areas in North China may face production control brought about by air pollution, or have a negative impact on silicon, which needs to be paid attention to.
From the weekly data, the double silicon supply trend is different. In terms of silicon manganese, individual large factories in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia have opened maintenance and stopped production, and the load has dropped to about 60%, and the latest statistical output and operating rate have fallen last week. It is expected that after the subsequent energy consumption policy is actually implemented, the supply of silicon and manganese may be significantly reduced, which is conducive to the balance of the supply and demand relationship of silicon and manganese. In terms of ferrosilicon, the supply of ferrosilicon increased instead of decreasing, affected by the expected reduction in electricity prices, the main producing areas in Shaanxi increased significantly, and the Zhongwei factory also resumed production, the supply of ferrosilicon is in a loose trend, and the subsequent need to pay attention to the impact of the production reduction news in Ningxia on the actual production of ferrosilicon.
In terms of cost, the price of coal at the mouth of the pit has accelerated the decline, the main raw material coal of LAN carbon has fallen sharply, and the inventory of LAN carbon itself is high, and the demand is weakened, so there is the possibility of further lowering the quotation of LAN in the short term. In terms of electricity prices, prices in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi are expected to be further reduced, but Yunnan is affected by the arrival of the dry season, and electricity prices may rise. Port manganese ore inventory is high, manganese ore prices continue weak consolidation. As a whole, the silicon cost line is in the downward channel, and it is difficult to support coal prices before they stabilize.
On the whole, the fundamentals of the silicon market are still biased, relatively speaking, the supply and demand pattern of silicon manganese is slightly better than that of iron silicon, and there is no obvious disturbance on the plate for the time being. State Investment Anxin futures believes that the market expects the cost of double silicon or downward space, judging that the short-term price rebound space is relatively limited.
