Iron ore futures continued a strong trend, the main contract closed at 900 points, up 2.51%, up 5 days in a row, approaching the main contract of nearly 7 months high. Iron ore continued neutral supply, high demand, low inventory pattern, the basic face of prices still have strong support, and by the fiscal policy of one trillion special national debt, the market for the fourth quarter of infrastructure growth expectations have changed, the market optimistic expectations again, short-term fundamentals and macro resonance, mine prices are strong operation.
On the demand side, last week, my iron and steel network data, 247 steel mills profit rate decreased by 2.6% to 16.45% week on week, steel blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.15% to 82.49% month on week; The average daily hot metal production rose 0.29 million tons to 2,427,300 tons, showing that even if the degree of loss of steel mills continues to increase, but the awareness of steel mills to actively reduce production is not strong, the negative feedback of the industrial chain is not smooth, and the demand for iron ore remains at a high level. According to my steel network research, this week we plan to overhaul 9 blast furnaces and resume production of 7 blast furnaces. After a short rise in hot metal or continue to maintain a downward trend. At the same time, with the rising cost of raw materials, steel mills are losing money or facing further losses, and the possibility of increasing production pressure is gradually increasing.
From October 23 to October 29, my iron and steel network news, the total shipment of Australian Brazilian iron ore was 26.291 million tons, an increase of 659,000 tons from the previous month; The total inbound volume of 47 ports in China was 27.828 million tons, an increase of 3.104 million tons from the previous month. Inventory, iron ore spot to maintain a high premium, steel mills based on demand procurement, recent port activity is low, last week 247 sample steel imported ore inventory decreased 355,500 tons to 90.42 million tons, domestic 45 port imported iron ore inventory increased 956,500 tons to 111.3716 million tons. Gradually into the seasonal accumulation stage, in line with market expectations, the impact on prices is small.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, although the steel demand in the traditional peak season is not as strong as expected, but the sustainability is better, last week's steel link weekly data show that the apparent demand for steel is almost stable week on week, the inventory of various varieties has declined, and the data has boosted the strong operation of the plate. The macro policy is expected to strengthen, after the Ministry of Finance decided to issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of 2023 national debt in the fourth quarter, the funds are focused on eight aspects such as post-disaster recovery and reconstruction, and The State Council can continue to issue some new local government debt limits in advance, which is good for related varieties of building materials.
