Near steel, the market sentiment is mainly wait-and-see, today's double silicon continued the shock trend, silicon manganese main contract closed at 6790 yuan, an increase of 0.62%, the main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.73% to 7130 yuan.
In terms of demand, with the macro good release and landing, the fundamental support is strong, although the downstream steel mill end is expected to overhaul, but the latest molten iron production rebounds beyond expectations, and there is still a certain amount of demand for furnace materials, while a new round of steel mill centralized bidding, double silicon demand or there is a certain marginal increment, in the short term there is no obvious negative demand for double silicon. The follow-up needs to continue to pay attention to the bidding situation of steel mills next month.
On the supply side, Shizuishan consumption control policy has been issued to the alloy factory, although there is no silicon manganese manufacturers to open a clear production cut, but the weekly data, silicon manganese production and operating rate has shown a downward trend, it is expected that with the tightening of energy consumption policy, silicon manganese supply will further shrink. Ferrosilicon is affected by the resumption of production in the producing area, the output does not decrease but increases, the individual manufacturers of the early maintenance of the ferrosilicon plant resume production, Shaanxi area is expected to be affected by the downward electricity costs, and some ferrosilicon plants take the lead in the resumption of production, and the temporary change in the supply of ferrosilicon is unknown. In general, the supply of silicon is still high, and the supply pressure of silicon manganese is less than that of silicon iron.
In terms of cost, some chemical coke in Ningxia implemented the second round of a reduction of 50 yuan, while calcium carbide companies in Inner Mongolia also lowered the small and medium-sized materials of carbon blue 40 yuan as scheduled, and the average price of Shenmu small materials to Monday was about 180 yuan lower than before the holiday. Manganese ore, high to the port, manganese silicon prices are still a continuation of weak consolidation. In terms of electricity prices, electricity prices in Shaanxi are expected to be further reduced, and electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia also fluctuate slightly. In general, there are signs of loosening at the cost end of double silicon, but under the support of the price of raw materials, the downside of double silicon cost is limited, and there is still support at the bottom.
In summary, this week comes back to the end of the month, most eyes in the industry focused on the major steel mills a new round of silicon bidding, as demand ushered in a wave of release, it is expected that the silicon market in the short term or can be slightly stable. Guomao futures believes that the cost of the double silicon disk this month is relatively excessive, although the fundamentals have not changed much, but in the domestic macro warming atmosphere, the valuation began to gradually repair, and continue to look at the double silicon in the short term.
