Market news (data from ferroalloy Online) : ① 13th 75# ferrosilicon: Shaanxi 7600-7650, Ningxia 7500-7600, Qinghai 7500-7600, Gansu 7500-7550, Inner Mongolia 7500-7600 (cash including tax natural block factory, yuan/ton); FOB: 72#1270-131, 75#1350-1390 (USD/ton, tax included). ②13 days 72# ferrosilicon: Anyang 6750-6800 (down 50) (cash excluding tax), Shaanxi 6800-6900 (down 50), Ningxia 6900-7000, Qinghai 6800-6900 (down 100), Gansu 6900-7000 (down 100), Inner Mongolia 7000-7100 (down 50) (cash including tax natural block factory, Yuan/ton). ③ The 13th silicon manganese 6517# Ningxia, Inner Mongolia quoted 6700-6750 yuan/ton; Guizhou, Guangxi quoted 6750-6800 yuan/ton, Yunnan quoted 6700-6750 yuan/ton. (Cash factory offer, including tax, yuan/ton).
Early comment: The hot metal opens the crutch down channel, and the long period of supply and demand in the fourth quarter caused by weak demand is loosened as the main logic of the unilateral downward trend of the double silicon disk after the node. However, the cost line has not changed significantly, Ningxia region ferrosilicon prompt factory has suffered losses, silicon manganese prompt factory profit within 100 yuan/ton. Vertical comparison of historical prices, the current manganese silicon near the monthly plate has fallen to the same period in late July and late August level, the current Ningxia region spot factory cost of 6530 yuan/ton (in late July for 6350 yuan/ton, in late August for 6450 yuan/ton), equivalent to the plate fell 100-200 yuan/ton of downward expectations; Ferrosilicon has fallen to the level of the same period in late July and late August, the current factory cost of 7130 yuan/ton in Ningxia region (in late July for 6500 yuan/ton, in late August for 6750 yuan/ton), the current disk is equivalent to a decline of 400-650 yuan/ton of cost expectations. Combined with the situation that the bottom support of coal in the fourth quarter is stronger than that in the third quarter, we judge that from the perspective of valuation repair, the double silicon disk is in a state of overfall at this time, and the price ratio of chasing short is extremely low; From the perspective of horizontal comparison of the price of the furnace plate of the industrial chain, double silicon fell back to the early support platform after the festival, and the rest of the burden fell less (iron ore fell by 1/5, coke fell by 1/2, coking coal fell by 2/5), from the perspective of the internal strength of the plate configuration, double silicon is no longer suitable for empty distribution. It is recommended that the early period of empty orders continue to gain, the day can be light test more.
