1, market summary: 13-day manganese silicon main contract (SM2312) to 6666 yuan/ton (-70, -0.74%); Ferrosilicon (SF2312) 7054 yuan/ton (-70, -0.98%).
2, logical analysis: Under the influence of multiple factors such as profit inversion and poor sales, some steel mills announced plans to reduce production in October, and many electric furnace plants have been implemented, gold nine silver ten basically failed, and the demand for furnace materials peaked in stages. From this month's steel recruitment can also be seen, steel mills on the alloy procurement has also begun to turn cautious, wind vane river steel recruitment on a large decline, announced manganese silicon pricing at 7000, far less than market expectations. Demand is expected to decline, but the alloy factory has continued to start high, repeatedly introduced energy consumption policies have not seen the relevant manufacturers to reduce production news, but Guangxi increased the opening of a lot of manganese silicon small furnaces, ferrosilicon has a large factory to open large furnaces, after the festival disk decline is also very smooth. But the fourth quarter energy consumption policy is only tight is basically determined, it is suggested that investors should pay more attention to whether there are large factories to implement administrative restrictions on production, which may also be the node of the disk from weak to strong. The decline in coal prices makes the market have a certain loosening of expectations for the cost of double silicon, but the raw material is not far from its long-term association price, and there is still strong support below. Manganese ore, affected by the weak disk, the manganese ore transaction price weakened this week, and the factory replenishment after the holiday is relatively general. However, the loading quotation of foreign mines has stabilized, among which the loading quotation of Jupiterin November increased by 0.05 USD/ton, and the bottom of the mine price appeared under the support of the exchange rate. In terms of coal coke, after the previous discontinued coal mines resumed production, the pit and port coal prices began to weaken, which is a concern of the alloy and even the black market. However, the domestic large mining quarterly long association rose about 200, Shanxi 4.3m coke oven phase-out implementation of coke supply without a large increment, Russian coal into the off-season, coke this loose space is relatively limited, this week the chemical coke quotation is stable, Inner Mongolia mainstream calcium carbide companies raise LAN carbon 80. However, at present, the plate has fallen to near the cost line in Ningxia, Ningxia manufacturers began to lose money, many periods of business in the early stage of very low basis to establish a positive set of positions have been unwinding, double silicon inventory has not turned into accumulation, coupled with the apparent effect of the policy, the growth rate of social finance stabilized, commodity sentiment will be repaired, short-term prices have upward elasticity, and it is suggested that the operation can try more light positions on the dip.
