After a brief adjustment, iron ore futures rose again today, the main contract closed up 0.66% to 845 yuan/ton, the highest intraday test to 847.5 yuan. Ton, came near recent volatility highs.
Iron ore demand is strong in the short term, the current profit of steel mills is still ok, and there is no active production reduction, and the production of molten iron declined only slightly last week, and the production reduction progress is slightly slow. However, in the short term, steel mills are mainly based on just need to purchase, and the total inventory of iron ore in each link of steel mills fell by 1,080,400 tons to 85,223,300 tons last week, and the absolute low inventory is very easy to amplify the volatility of iron ore prices. It should be noted that the current seasonal consumption of steel is low season, steel inventory is in the trend of accumulation, and the overall atmosphere of the spot market is general. The foundation of hot metal to continue to maintain high production is gradually loosening, and the landing of production restriction measures is also affecting the demand for iron ore, but the local production restriction has a small impact. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the level control news, the implementation of production restrictions around the country and the intensity of the production reduction of hot metal in the off-season.
On the supply side, the current domestic 45 port iron ore arrivals continued to increase by 633,000 tons to 24.725 million tons, rising for four weeks, and has come to the highest level since late February, and the increase to Hong Kong is mainly from Australian mines and non-mainstream mines. As the Australian ore fiscal year impulse has been arriving at the port, it is expected that there will be a small decline in the next period. In addition, as of yesterday, China's port 45 imported iron ore inventory of 124.9997,500 tons, down 60,000 tons from last Monday, and the total inventory of port 47 131.1875 million tons, down 160,000 tons week on week.
On the macro side, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the GDP in the first half of the year was 59,303.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year at constant prices, 1.0 percentage points faster than the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew by 4.5% in the first quarter and 6.3% in the second quarter, falling short of market expectations. The housing market is still in bad shape. China's investment in real estate development fell 7.9 percent year-on-year to 5.855 billion yuan in the first half of the year, data from the Bureau of Statistics showed yesterday. In the first half of this year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 7915.48 million square meters, down 6.6% year on year; The newly started housing area was 498.8 million square meters, down 24.3%, and the decline of both increased. In the first half of the year, the sales area of commercial housing was 595.15 million square meters, down 5.3% year-on-year, and the decline increased by 4.4% quarter-on-quarter. In the tertiary sector, infrastructure investment grew 7.2% year on year, compared with 7.5% in the previous January-May period.
Huatai futures commented that due to the recent macro stimulus policy has not been implemented, the market is worried about the lack of consumption in the later period, the lack of confidence in steel mills, the purchase of raw materials is relatively cautious, and the upward space for iron ore prices is suppressed. In the short term, the supply and demand fundamentals of iron ore are still strong, and the price performance is relatively strong. In the future, if the administrative pressure policy is implemented, it will form a medium-term negative for iron ore, and the supply of iron ore is facing a surplus situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of high ore prices by policies.
