Iron ore futures rose today, the main contract closed up 0.69% to 801.5 yuan/ton, but the performance is still relatively weak in the sector. Today, the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo bid rate by 10 basis points to 1.90%, releasing a signal of stable growth, making the market more expected to economic policies, black commodities as a whole strong operation, afternoon many versions of the easing policy spread, disturbing the market mentality, and later pay specific attention to whether MLF and LPR will be lowered this month and whether there will be official policies.
On the macro side, from China's import and export data and inflation data in the first five months, the economy has declined for two consecutive months, and the continuous depreciation of the renminbi, which has made the market's expectations for policy efforts to stabilize growth continue to rise. In recent days, the market sentiment was driven by macro expectations, steel prices rose and repaired, boosting iron ore, the eve of the relevant heavy data release this week, the market has signs of profit departure, yesterday's disk fell. However, today, the People's Bank of China carried out 7-day reverse repurchase operations in the open market of 2 billion yuan, and the winning interest rate was 1.90%, down 10 basis points. This rate cut makes the market more looking forward to the future economic policy, after the announcement of the news, the financial market confidence was boosted, the reaction was positive, and the building materials related varieties as a whole rose.
On the demand side, steel mills have some just-replenished demand for iron ore, and the terminal demand also shows a certain toughness in the off-season. At the same time, the short-term steel supply is limited, the expected increase in production is still strong, and the demand for iron ore remains at a high level. Last week, the average profit of Tangshan mainstream sample steel mills reached a new stage, and the profit rate of 247 steel mills was 43.72%, an increase of 10.82 percentage points from the previous month, but the average daily output of hot metal was 2.4082 million tons, an increase of only 0.01 million tons from the previous month. Therefore, it is not ruled out that with the improvement of profits, the resumption of production will increase, and the demand for iron ore will be boosted.
The supply and inventory are in a recovery trend, this week's shipment data show that global iron ore shipments remain high, last week's total iron ore shipments in Australia and Brazil fell only 440,000 tons to 26.01 million tons, due to the fading impact of overseas weather and the impact of overseas mines at the end of the season. On June 13, Mysteel statistics of China Port 45 imported iron ore inventory of 127.6378 million tons, an increase of 1.48 million tons compared with last Monday, port 47 total inventory of 133.7978 million tons, an increase of 1.54 million tons compared with last Monday.
Big futures suggest that the fundamentals of iron ore in the industrial chain is relatively healthy, the recent sector has rebounded under the macro expectations of speculation, iron ore is showing a strong operation, but based on the second half of the overseas supply easing and domestic production reduction expectations, we still maintain a weak view of iron ore in the medium and long term, can be used as a long variety of industrial chain configuration.
