On the one hand, the real estate data repair is still slow, and the real estate enterprise investment, start and construction data directly related to the demand for black goods have not improved significantly. On the other hand, the current high steel supply is difficult to be accepted by the actual demand, the future steel supply and demand weak is still the main melody, the burden cost center of gravity will move down on the steel price.
Since late March, rebar prices fell under pressure. Yesterday, 2310 contract is down to this round of new low price 3680 yuan/ton. The reason lies in the fact that this year's steel supply has achieved production increase significantly faster, earlier and more efficiently. Since April, the marginal demand for building materials has been revised down, unable to match the high supply well, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified continuously. Looking to the future market, the author believes that in the coming period of time, supply and demand two weak is still the main melody, and the solution of this contradiction also see steel production elasticity adjustment.
At present, the growth of steel demand is still affected by housing enterprises to take land and the willingness to start new construction, which also means that the current high supply of steel is difficult to be realistic demand to undertake, superimposed crude steel reduction policy, the production of steel production is imperative. The future steel supply and demand is still the mainstream structure, in the production cut fully realized and supply and demand optimization before the market may first trade production cut brought by the burden cost center of gravity down, and then the steel price formation drag, and then will turn to production cut brought by the rapid optimization of supply and demand structure.
In specific operation, the pattern of near strong and far weak furnace charge and steel mill virtual profit near weak and far strong has actually proved the market trading expectations, follow-up attention to steel mill production reduction and production adjustment time dimension, in production reduction before full trading, the downward revision of furnace charge valuation is the main driving force.
