In the off-season, there is still an expected period of snail shock

Wednesday snail prices bottomed out and rose. From a macro perspective, the market is looking forward to more economic stimulus policies. From the perspective of steel supply and demand, the recent market supply and demand have fallen three times, because the capital chain of steel mills is still good in the past few years, the cost support is still effective, and the big cycle is still to see whether the raw materials give the market space to fall. In the short and medium term, the market is still in the off-season to see expectations and the process of terminal replenishment. Mysteel statistics five varieties (excluding cold roll to add profiles) production of 8.5 million tons per week, a slight increase from the previous year, down 3.6%, six varieties of steel mills inventory of 4.92 million tons, down 34.2%, rebar inventory of 1.93 million tons, down 43.4%. The market inventory runs to a low level, and the off-season inventory reduction speed is faster than the previous three years, indicating that the downstream terminal has replenished the inventory. Last Wednesday, the transaction area of commercial housing in ten cities continued to be depressed, and the average transaction value of Mysteel building materials was 146,000 tons, down 5.5% year-on-year. Supply and demand storage dropped three times, the terminal has replenished the inventory, and the off-season continues to look forward to policy stimulus, but the pressure of the big cycle is not reduced. Investors are advised to wait and see.