Steel Futures Before The Spring Festival Shock Collation

Analysis: On a macro level, The State Council recently issued a notice: In order to prevent and defuse local government debt risks, 12 key provinces including Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia are required to strengthen the management of government investment projects, including the specific scope of transportation: Local expressways, reconstruction and expansion of civil transport airports that do not involve additional runways, general airports, canals that focus on shipping functions, urban rail transit and urban (suburban) railway projects. Medium - and long-term negative steel. In terms of industry, winter demand is off season, and spot transactions are weak, but March-June is the peak season for steel consumption, and the market still has expectations for peak season demand. Near thread 3850, traders have a strong willingness to store in winter. Due to the current thread hot coil futures and spot flat water, the power to continue to rise before the Spring Festival is weak. In 2024, real estate has a high probability of negative growth, and if infrastructure investment in the first half of 2024 is negative, steel consumption in 2024 is less than expected, and steel prices are under pressure in the medium and long term. Before the short-term Spring Festival steel futures are still volatile pattern, but the medium and long-term pressure.