Steel spot thread HRB400 Beijing 3720, -10; Hangzhou 3680, -20; Shandong 3620, -20; Hot roll Shanghai 3900,0; Lecong 3750, -20; Boxhing Base 3760, -10. 237 mainstream traders traded 139,300 tons of building materials, last week's average of 166,900; Mysteel Construction Steel turnover (840 samples), 360,800. The price of imported iron ore fell 1-3 all day. The market is now PB powder 787 down 3, PB block 900 down 2. Iron ore turnover on May 16: the country's main port iron ore turnover of 1.039 million tons, down 13.9% from the previous month; The average daily transaction this week was 1.23 million tons, up 14.9% from the previous month; This month, the average daily transaction of 958,000 tons, down 0.9% month-on-month. Spot forward accumulated transaction of 640,000 tons (5), up 138.8% month on month. (Data source, mysteel).
Market news: (1) China's industrial output above designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year in April. On a month-on-month basis, the industrial output above designated size fell 0.47 percent in April from the previous month. In the first four months of this year, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.6% year on year. China's investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) from January to April reached 14,748.2 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year. From January to April, the investment in real estate development was 3.551.4 billion yuan, down by 6.2% year on year; The floor area of newly started housing construction was 312.2 million square meters, down 21.2 percent year on year, and the floor area of commercial housing sales was 376.36 million square meters, down 0.4 percent year on year. (2) National Bureau of Statistics: In April, the average daily output of crude steel in China was 3,088,800 tons and that of pig iron 2,594,700 tons; The average daily output of steel is 3,998,300 tons. In April, China's crude steel output was 92.64 million tons, down 1.5% year on year, and pig iron output was 77.84 million tons, up 1.0% year on year. Steel output was 11.95 million tons, up by 5.0% year on year.
Logically, Black faces the triple pressure of expectation, reality and cost, expectation and cost may have a marginal change for the better. In reality, the black fundamental reality is still under pressure under high production and weak demand, and the negative feedback trend has not changed at present. At the expected level, monetary and fiscal policies remained unchanged at the Politburo meeting at the end of April, long-term reform issues were firm, and the overall plan was mainly implemented. But last Friday's market rumors cut interest rates, although the short-term impact on the economy and fundamentals is limited, may also be the second half of the new policy, new measures starting point (easy to promote positive feedback and supplement expectations). At the cost end, steel pig iron production down, in the downstream demand transmission is not smooth, crude steel output flat control and other expectations, steel to raw materials to profit, coking coal, iron ore sharply down, negative expectations have been reflected, but within the industrial chain negative feedback, still negative late spot. Generally speaking, the short-term shock or rebound may exist, but high supply weak recovery under the negative feedback is still to be carried out, the medium-term trend is still not optimistic.
Iron ore demand end or will face steel mill overhaul increase, hot metal production is expected to continue to reduce. At the same time, supply and shipment gradually pick up, iron ore supply growth is expected to be faster than demand, iron ore fundamentals turn weak, weak expectations will gradually come true.
In general, short - term should not follow the rise and fall, short - to - long - term single hold or high short.
