Macro good news continues to stimulate market sentiment, the black plate is red across the board, and double silicon is driven by its upward trend, of which silicon manganese is rising significantly, and the main contract is up more than 1%.
On the macro side, the US CPI in October fell more than expected, the market increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year, and market sentiment continued to recover. In domestic news, there are rumors that the central bank plans to provide at least 1 trillion yuan of low-cost financing to boost the real estate market, indicating the national level to stabilize the real estate policy orientation. Under the joint boost of good news at home and abroad, the black sentiment has significantly improved, and the center of gravity of the plate has moved up, driving the price of silicon.
On the demand side, affected by the centralized maintenance of steel mills last week, the production of molten iron fell below the 2.4 million tons platform, but it was still above the high of 2.35 million tons. In the near future, the price of finished materials has risen significantly, the profits of steel mills have been better repaired, and it is expected that the subsequent active production reduction of steel mills is limited, and the alloy just needs can still be basically undertaken. In terms of steel recruitment, the bidding volume of double silicon river steel this month is less than expected, and the weak weather vane has dragged down market sentiment, causing a certain negative impact, and it is necessary to continue to follow the guidance of the river steel bidding price on the trend of double silicon.
On the supply side, the supply of ferrosilicon continues to be high, and a new furnace in Inner Mongolia is expected to produce iron at the end of this week, or further increase the production of ferrosilicon, exacerbating the supply pressure. In terms of silicon manganese, the shipment situation of silicon manganese manufacturers is general, some manufacturers have reduced load, and it is rumored that the regulatory requirements for Ningxia manufacturers to limit production this month have achieved results, and it is expected that there will be further downside space for silicon manganese supply in the future. In comparison, the supply pressure of silicon manganese is significantly less than that of iron silicon, but the inventory of silicon manganese is slow to be destocked, and the high inventory is still an important factor to suppress the price of silicon manganese.
In terms of cost, due to the support of heating season procurement, double focal disk performance is strong, Ningxia chemical coke mainstream specifications increased by two rounds of 50 yuan, metallurgical coke also carried out the first round of increase of 100 yuan, while LAN carbon will usher in a new round of increase opportunities, the price of carbon elements used in alloys is strong, and the cost of double silicon has played a better support. In terms of other costs, manganese ore is limited by the quantity shipped to the port, the market is relatively depressed, the overall change in the price of electricity is little, and the disk is less responsive to these slow variables. Overall, the strong operation of coal has become the main positive factor on the cost side of silicon, relatively speaking, ferrosilicon is more significantly boosted by the positive impact on the cost side.
In summary, the fundamentals of double silicon have not changed much, and the current trend of its disk is mainly driven by the sentiment of the black plate. Zhongtai futures believes that black is still mainly affected by macro sentiment expectations, sentiment is more, short-term double silicon or follow the overall fluctuations of macro and black, and unilateral recommendations are mainly wait-and-see.
