News
On the macro front, driven by domestic "anti-involution" sentiment, black metal products have benefited significantly, with stainless steel also experiencing a strong rebound recently. However, starting Friday, expectations for "anti-involution" policies have cooled, leading to a decline in SS prices. In overseas markets, Trump has continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the market expects the Fed to maintain its current interest rate level at its July meeting.
Currently, the fundamentals of pure nickel have not changed significantly, with the surplus situation remaining unchanged and limited spot transactions. In the nickel sulfate sector, stronger cost support has driven up transaction prices, with downstream inventory replenishment demand showing marginal improvement. In the nickel ore sector, Philippine mines have a strong willingness to sell at high prices. While the fundamentals of domestic nickel iron have marginally improved, downstream buyers may still have limited acceptance of high-priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, improved weather has eased shipping pressure, but ore prices remain elevated, continuing to squeeze local steel mills' profits.
In the nickel iron sector, smelters continue to reduce production, with iron mills maintaining relatively firm quotes, but downstream steel mills remain cautious. In the stainless steel sector, the "anti-internal competition" trend continues to drive futures prices higher, improving market sentiment, but spot transactions remain lackluster overall. Given the industry's off-season, upward momentum for steel prices is expected to be limited.
Shanghai Nickel 2509 reference range: 115,000–125,000 yuan/ton. Stainless Steel 2509 reference range: 12,400–13,100 yuan/ton. Trading strategy: For nickel and stainless steel, go short on rallies.
Uncertainty risks: Geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy, tariff disruptions, domestic economic recovery, and industrial policies in Indonesia and the Philippines.
