Iron ore main night trading higher, intra-day wide fluctuations, the main contract closed up 0.06% to 807 yuan/ton, volume warehouse synchronous decline.
Macro, the current market for the future of the real estate stimulus policy expectations are still in, yesterday the People's Bank of China, the financial Supervision Administration issued "on extending the financial support for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market policy period Notice", clear "financial 16" in the policy has a period of application, the application period will be uniformly extended to December 31, 2024. However, since the introduction of the policy on November 11 last year, affected by the market mentality and the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings, the front-end development of real estate has not changed greatly, the demand for materials has not significantly increased in the first half of this year, and the completion of real estate has accelerated, so the black chain varieties have a relatively small reaction to the good
After entering the off-season, the downstream demand for steel is weak, the high production is still unsustainable, the price is under pressure, and the demand side of iron ore may have long-term downward expectations. In addition, the landing of production restriction measures affect the demand for iron ore, on July 1, Tangshan City held an environmental protection scheduling meeting, because the Tangshan city air quality ranking continued to decline, the municipal bureau focused on conveying the key measures in July; In addition, Chengdu will usher in the 31st World University Summer Games on July 28, as of July 5, some steel mills have received the relevant verbal power restriction notice. However, iron ore production fell only slightly last week, and iron ore demand is still supported.
On the supply side, the impulse of Australian mines at the end of the fiscal year is over, and will fall seasonally after entering July. Last week, the total shipment of 19 iron ore mines in Australia and Brazil was 24.324 million tons, a decrease of 5.115,000 tons from the previous month. Domestic arrivals continued to increase to the highest level for the year, with total arrivals at 45 ports in China increasing by 492,000 tons month-on-month to 2.492 million tons. Under the influence of high port thinning, the port inventory is still out of storage. My iron and steel network data show that today China Port 45 imported iron ore inventory of 125.0531 million tons, a decrease of 2.08 million tons from last Monday.
Maike futures said that last week, iron ore global shipments significantly down, the end of the second quarter of the shipment ended high, the current shipment is a normal range; Domestic iron ore supply is still recovering. Due to the demand for exports and small varieties of steel is better, the demand for hot metal is still strong, the strong fundamentals of iron ore are still continuing, although the downstream domestic demand of steel began to weaken further, but the negative feedback has not been transmitted to iron ore, and the level control policy is not landing before maintaining a bullish view.
