At present, iron ore supply is higher than the same period last year, low demand, port accumulation faster situation, the fundamentals are relatively weak, steel mills are in seasonal resumption of production, it is expected that the first half of hot metal production can not reach the same period last year, iron ore valuation still has room to continue to decline.
Iron ore shipments after the Spring Festival were higher than the same period last year, but the production of hot metal at the resumption stage did not rise for two consecutive weeks, and the port inventory continued to rise, and the fundamentals were weak, and the iron ore pan oscillated down all the way after the high opening. Under the current low profit and low molten iron production, steel mills are not highly motivated to replenish iron ore, iron ore spot prices since the end of January sharply back more than 13%, the market sentiment is pessimistic.
Overall global iron ore shipments were higher than the same period last yearThe first quarter is the traditional slow season for the four major mines, but the overall level of iron ore shipments was higher than the same period last year. Since the beginning of 2024, the average weekly shipment of global iron ore has reached 28 million tons, an increase of 3.17%. The average weekly global shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 22.59 million tons, down 0.79% year-on-year; The average weekly shipment of Australian iron ore was 16.19 million tons, down 7.42% year-on-year; Brazilian iron ore shipments averaged 6.4 million tons per week, up 21.14% year-on-year. From the four major mining shipments, Rio Tinto's weekly shipments averaged 5.67 million tons, down 7.58% year-on-year; BHP weekly average shipment of 5.24 million tons, down 1.27% year-on-year; FMG weekly shipments averaged 2.9 million tons, down 17.95% year-on-year; VALE shipped an average of 4.78 million tons per week, an increase of 24.01%. The average weekly shipment of non-mainstream mines was 5.41 million tons, an increase of 23.83%.
We found that in the mainstream mines, heavy rain in Brazil and hurricanes in Australia had a certain seasonal impact on iron ore shipments, and the overall volume of shipments in Australia and Brazil fell slightly, and the volume of shipments in the three major mainstream mines in Australia declined, while the volume of shipments in VALE in Brazil increased significantly year-on-year. Non-mainstream mine shipments remained seasonally high, supplementing the marginal supply of iron ore to some extent, making overall global iron ore shipments higher in the first quarter than in the same period last year.
