The weak sentiment of the black plate suppressed the trend of ferroalloy, causing the double silicon operation trend to rise and fall, today the main contract of silicon manganese closed at 6408 yuan, an increase of 0.44%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon fell 0.15% to 6752 yuan.
In terms of demand, steel data show that the output of the five major steel varieties increased by 110,000 tons, although there is a slight decline in blast furnace hot metal, but the output is filled by electric furnace production, ferroalloy as a useful auxiliary material for long and short process steelmaking, the demand still has a certain toughness. December steel recruitment will be large-scale opening at the beginning of the month, a new round of centralized procurement of steel mills or pull silicon demand marginal increase, disk trading logic is expected to turn to steel pricing game, follow-up can pay close attention to the current round of steel prices and production of alloy market guidance. In addition, many regions in Hebei started heavy pollution weather Ⅱ response, will cause a certain disturbance to steel production, short-term negative impact on silicon, but also need to maintain attention.
On the supply side, the weekly data showed that the supply of double silicon shrank last week, and the production area of production was expanded, and the peak or load reduction was still the majority. Specifically, silicon manganese Ningxia immediate loss, the main manufacturers have the intention to reduce production, Shizuishan area energy consumption is still in the state of exceeding the standard, the current manufacturers to further reduce the production load, the recent need to focus on the change of production reduction in Ningxia region, silicon manganese supply is expected to have further downside space. In terms of ferrosilicon, the reduction of ferrosilicon production is less than manganese silicon, its supply is still at a higher position as a whole, and there is still no load reduction action in Zhongwei and other places, in the short term, you can pay attention to the immediate profit change of ferrosilicon production, if the production continues to lose, then the possibility of large-scale production reduction cannot be ruled out.
In terms of cost, recently, the overall price of coke was stable, the blue carbon was dragged down by the weakness of thermal coal, and the mainstream calcium carbide enterprises were pressured to implement a cumulative reduction of 50 yuan/ton of profits. In terms of manganese ore, manganese ore has gone to the warehouse, but it is still a buyer's market, and the price has fallen. Overall, the double silicon cost line has been slightly reduced, but the change is not large, and there is still solid support at the bottom.
In summary, the reduction of silicon supply, the formation of a certain support for the plate price, while a new round of steel is about to be opened, it is expected that the supply and demand side of silicon will have a short mismatch of supply and demand, and the supply and demand pattern will be more marginal. Zhongtai futures believes that the fundamentals of silicon itself are still not ideal, but the current disk further chasing short price ratio is low, and it is necessary to focus on the changes in the Ningxia region and the Ningxia region in November settlement of electricity charges.
